Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $255 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a453f75b18a606ebde6a2f0955778046dfd2e8361bc5fc5ce6e053a786f458d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 3c | 669.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 12c | 578.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 77c | 214.27$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked Yes | 43c | 160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 10c | 139.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…a290backed Yes | 35c | 124.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 95.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 13c | 82.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 29c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 64c | 46.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 59c | 25.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $255 in April?this page
- Will Google dip to $220 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $270 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $280 in April?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $310 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $320 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $335 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $375 in April?Yes won
- Will Google reach $400 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.