TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3773…f0dd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
125
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: World Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennislast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT7554.7%41 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 75 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$156.77
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensikbacked Thiago Agustin Tirante · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$185.9
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Daniel Merida Aguilarbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.17
Cincinnati Open: Michael Zheng vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$58.83
Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoebacked Lorenzo Sonego · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.23
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Zizou Bergsbacked Daniel Merida Aguilar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$85.56
Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsenbacked Alex Michelsen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.3
Cincinnati Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.38
Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettinibacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$61.56
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Hubert Hurkaczbacked Hubert Hurkacz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.11
Cincinnati Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Jakub Mensikbacked Jakub Mensik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.5
Cincinnati Open: Martin Landaluce vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Martin Landaluce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.9
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Mariano Navonebacked Mariano Navone · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.8
Cincinnati Open: Coleman Wong vs Daniel Altmaierbacked Coleman Wong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.4
National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Luciano Darderibacked Nuno Borges · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.63
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Tommy Paulbacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$86.31
National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirantebacked Thiago Agustin Tirante · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$61.6
National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonsecabacked Joao Fonseca · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$42.78
National Bank Open: Terence Atmane vs Jakub Mensikbacked Terence Atmane · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
National Bank Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Hubert Hurkaczbacked Botic van de Zandschulp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$92.95
National Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldibacked Tallon Griekspoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.95
National Bank Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Blockxbacked Jiri Lehecka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.52
National Bank Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Nuno Borgesbacked Yannick Hanfmann · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.62
National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shangbacked Juncheng Shang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.88
National Bank Open: Ugo Humbert vs Daniel Merida Aguilarbacked Ugo Humbert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.72
Showing 25 of 75 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT3756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.2
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 102-103°F on July 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Ebola case in the US by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$413Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$155.52
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$17.64
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+62.9%+$52.52
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$585Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$584.57
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$45
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+95.2%+$67.51
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.99
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$6.95
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$14.46
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.2
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$58.25
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.61
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on April 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$36.56
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.45
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.63
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+33%+$61.89
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$97.46
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+57.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,244Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$2,152.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KeyCorp (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+27.7%+$5.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.