Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357843af7960164f07727ff63182c843cf3487e6fad668f541e331906aa24c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,041$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 65c | 789.08$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.8 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 678.2$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 678.02$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 32c | 506.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 440.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 402.61$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 35c | 382.07$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 343.53$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 334.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 310.92$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 67c | 305.2$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.02 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 301.05$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 55c | 287.41$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.32 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 28c | 277.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 259.59$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 245.86$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 48c | 224.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 224.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.51 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 75c | 204.77$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed Yes | 61c | 178.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 32c | 171.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 45c | 162$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.29 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 159.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 49c | 154.26$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Yes | 58c | 153.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 68c | 145.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 64c | 139.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 128.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 121.57$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 121.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.82 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 120.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 27c | 107.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 67c | 107.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 47c | 107.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 106.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 58c | 105.59$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 54c | 104.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 33c | 103.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 101.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 30c | 95.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 68c | 91.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 88.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 46c | 88.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 86.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 60c | 86.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff4d…3d84backed No | 16c | 86.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 26c | 85.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 78.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 78.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 61c | 75.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 46c | 74.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 67.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 56c | 67.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 67c | 67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 63c | 64.73$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 62.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 60.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 32c | 60.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 66c | 59.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 51c | 55.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 55.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 54.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 28c | 53.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 69c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…7eccbacked Yes | 57c | 52.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 52.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…c495backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…153bbacked Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 21c | 47.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 47.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 67c | 44.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 48c | 44.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 42.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 44c | 40.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 40.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 43c | 40.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.