TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,494 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c850.4$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.248,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c678.28$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes36c621.5$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.2370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes41c558.5$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.3618945.5%86 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes39c452.86$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.3638515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No51c402.61$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.334,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes37c270.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.7231943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes28c255.49$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.491,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No60c224.57$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.671,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14056543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No62c187.7$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.53,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes23c186.71$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.2537056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No64c186$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed Yes30c183.64$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8127056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes26c180.06$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.065,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes25c169.7$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.581,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes41c167.09$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1957747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c162.98$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.12,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No66c151.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c150$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.085,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes50c149.96$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9819148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No66c147.11$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.271,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes25c145$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.863538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b31…8ee2backed No75c140$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053366.7%22 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No58c129$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes36c116.35$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4657948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No66c116.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.661,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c112.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No76c105.34$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0197152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c100.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.192,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5729345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7724732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No46c99.94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.411,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes18c99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.1835232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No66c95.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c93.71$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.373,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes25c93.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.111,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf81c…4540backed Yes38c92.31$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.31944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes24c91.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708636%31 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+40.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes15c86.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.894,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes26c85.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9890555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No62c82.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0246743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c81.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.981,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No67c80.05$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.881,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes32c75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes18c67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.942,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes38c65.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No44c65.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes34c63.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.122638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes39c62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes28c61.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.442,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked No57c61.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.843611.1%4 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed62…c51dbacked Yes30c57.71$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.334628.9%100 W · 246 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes40c55.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.439,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes35c53.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No72c52.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No58c51.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7733654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No67c50.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.841,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c49.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.592,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c49.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.732,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c49.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No58c47.81$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7391861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…153bbacked Yes34c46.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes41c45.82$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2148743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No70c44.69$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4ddd…7996backed No61c44.52$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.981283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes29c40.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.951,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes46c40.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.914,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked Yes31c40.15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.713545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No61c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.429835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes43c39.68$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6494552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes43c39.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.593,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x816d…47d0backed Yes69c36.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.453278.1%25 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes33c36.12$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.22231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes28c35.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7746240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes33c35.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.461,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes64c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.923241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes42c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.144,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes42c32.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.111,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.467336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No73c29.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7446452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No59c29.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6953855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No60c28.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4117361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No63c23.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c23.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.471,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x194d…85c0backed No62c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03b5…c585backed No47c21.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.322240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No69c20.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.423958.2%139 W · 100 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed No78c19.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No71c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7934853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x901e…7389backed No74c18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.328670.9%61 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes69c17.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.492,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No62c16.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No65c16.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.