Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x193fe294ed60fb80487f5a0ab69a7966515be0b7953015c4b9b251c31e130d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 850.4$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 678.28$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 36c | 621.5$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.23 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 41c | 558.5$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.36 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 39c | 452.86$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.36 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 402.61$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 37c | 270.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 28c | 255.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.49 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 224.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 62c | 187.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 23c | 186.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 186$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 30c | 183.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.81 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 180.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 169.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 167.09$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 162.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 151.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 50c | 149.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 66c | 147.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 25c | 145$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 75c | 140$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 129$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 36c | 116.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 116.06$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 112.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 76c | 105.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 100.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 46c | 99.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 18c | 99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 95.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 93.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 93.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81c…4540backed Yes | 38c | 92.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 24c | 91.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 86.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.89 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 26c | 85.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 62c | 82.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 81.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 80.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 18c | 67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 65.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 65.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 34c | 63.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 28c | 61.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 57c | 61.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 30c | 57.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 55.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 53.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 52.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 58c | 51.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 67c | 50.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 49.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 49.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 47.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…153bbacked Yes | 34c | 46.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 41c | 45.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 44.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…7996backed No | 61c | 44.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 29c | 40.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 40.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 31c | 40.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 43c | 39.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 39.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed Yes | 69c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 33c | 36.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 28c | 35.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 33c | 35.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 60c | 28.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 23.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x194d…85c0backed No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 20.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 17.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 16.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.