Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x326b6711776e0c29bf8bc0ddd6ebde5ad7ff8c7f223367fecfb29e28a0e41964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 19c | 1,091$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.71 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 22c | 1,005$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.01 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 905.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 873$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.54 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 497.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 18c | 484.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.24 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 322.37$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…d97fbacked Yes | 17c | 234.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 209.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 38c | 200.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 21c | 182.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 18c | 179.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 142.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 24c | 139.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 75c | 133.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 8c | 128.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 20c | 126.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 121.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 11c | 118.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 17c | 94.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 19c | 94.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 38c | 93.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 22c | 91.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 30c | 87.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 40c | 83.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 69c | 59.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 54.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 52.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 51.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…6dcebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 39.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 37.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 41c | 24.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 78c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 77c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.