Earnings · resolved market
Will KeyCorp (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3558b515ba6483368607cddec743b85f55d47234b18d0ed16ec632ee289d3fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c56…0b1dbacked No | 1c | 2,493$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 80c | 1,400$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 23c | 368.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 23c | 330.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 76c | 316.34$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…978ebacked Yes | 72c | 261.29$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 23c | 182.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 76c | 181.18$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 174.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 27c | 149.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 21c | 146.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 74c | 135.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 29c | 122.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208f…69d7backed No | 29c | 119.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 15c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 105.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…24d2backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 21c | 79.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 24c | 75.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…3262backed Yes | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 74c | 59.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 59.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 74c | 54.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 50.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…32f8backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…7d5fbacked No | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 25c | 41.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4b…f8d4backed No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed Yes | 79c | 31.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…0739backed Yes | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…e91ebacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 78c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd89d…d615backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 76c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…011dbacked Yes | 62c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…755dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…93a8backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…95dcbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f4…0e37backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…fe1abacked Yes | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…516abacked Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.