Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe47c4384e8086b14a14bf17ca1345f47a6578ae064ccc4dd5330794b8f355fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 1c | 3,023$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 0c | 2,692$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,844$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 61c | 826.34$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.28 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 718.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 36c | 533.78$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 63c | 452.68$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.26 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 62c | 448.17$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.11 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 331.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.9 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 22c | 251.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 43c | 193.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 16c | 180.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…a5a8backed Yes | 25c | 168.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 23c | 160.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 158.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 142.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 125.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 39c | 118.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 107.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 29c | 95.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 93.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 78c | 92.05$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…09c1backed Yes | 58c | 83.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 77.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Yes | 62c | 77.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 60c | 71.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 20c | 69.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 39c | 64.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 76c | 57.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 44c | 56.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 25c | 55.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 28c | 49.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…734ebacked Yes | 61c | 48.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 51c | 47.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 46.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 46.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…55c4backed No | 56c | 44.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 42.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 37c | 40.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 40.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…90debacked Yes | 60c | 37.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 40c | 36.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 45c | 35.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 44c | 35.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 39c | 31.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 43c | 27.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 66c | 27.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 70c | 25.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 47c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 52c | 23.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 70c | 22.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 62c | 20.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 54c | 20.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 55c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 73c | 17.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…ec67backed No | 70c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.