Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389907f73aa6da74f719b6102ff3a78e5599c468d80dc99975aeff1bba591eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6517…573fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,735$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.06 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 505$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 3c | 338.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 29c | 264.66$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 244.02$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 10c | 237.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 58c | 232.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 183$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 60c | 166.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 9c | 163.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 158.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 150.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 25c | 134.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 13c | 114.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes | 17c | 106.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +90%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 32c | 104.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…82fcbacked Yes | 49c | 96.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 17c | 76.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 68c | 71.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 33c | 56.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 52.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 77c | 48.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 51c | 43.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6deb…f584backed Yes | 33c | 43.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…935bbacked No | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 78c | 41.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 36.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked Yes | 30c | 35.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 73c | 33.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 31.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 66c | 29.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 78c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 25.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 23.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 75c | 22.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 77c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.