Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3cc7954cb51f84762e629cb98de013ba722ac93a8adba451722d2c22f1e8e7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa36…bd96backed Yes | 2c | 560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 303.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 293.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 267.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 216.72$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 43c | 211.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 39c | 197.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 174.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 59c | 174.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 39c | 167.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 77c | 147.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 61c | 136.08$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 133.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 117.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 116.81$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 111.72$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 18c | 108.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 74c | 107.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 21c | 104$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 103.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 102.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea29…9747backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 94.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 80.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 77.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 24c | 77.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 76.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 75.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 36c | 68.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 67.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 36c | 66.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 49c | 65.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 36c | 64.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 44c | 63.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 38c | 62.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 60.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 58.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 56.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 58c | 55.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 31c | 53.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 26c | 52.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 22c | 50.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 48.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 46.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 45.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 33c | 45.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 44.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 41.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 40.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 40.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 40c | 40.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 40c | 40.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 39.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 64c | 38.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 64c | 36.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 36.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 59c | 33.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 59c | 29.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 28.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 59c | 28.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 56c | 26.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 23.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 73c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 21.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 52c | 21.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 52c | 20.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 67c | 19.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed No | 74c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 17.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 67c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 71c | 17.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…492dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.