Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9b51173258ce36428e2272417c5780aabf648d99780f758f9d9d6e35459aa5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,959
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,959 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb50…207abacked No | 3c | 785.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 497.32$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 272.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.72 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 231.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 48c | 213.4$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 149.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 146.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 66c | 143.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 46c | 143.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 130.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 112.55$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 18c | 108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 67c | 95.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 94.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 43c | 94.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 39c | 90.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 90.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 90.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 44c | 83.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 82.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 27c | 79.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.74 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 53c | 76.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 53c | 75.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 72.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 65.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 64.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 56c | 62.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 56.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 56.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 51.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 50.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 45.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 44.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 44.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 32c | 42.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Yes | 43c | 41.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 49c | 40.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 38.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d09…ea9dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 36.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 34.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 62c | 32.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 30.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 44c | 28.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 48c | 21.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.