Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0689361f642e48c71d5c8d8de5c980ebd27aa52877afa80ae1f3cf996097c447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 19c | 639.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 542.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 515.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 29c | 429.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.95 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 19c | 329.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 301.78$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 178.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 7c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 9c | 157.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 129.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 78c | 127.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 114.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 22c | 64.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 79c | 62.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 19c | 62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 61.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 60.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 21c | 58.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 56.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d9…eec0backed No | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2665…e591backed Yes | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 30.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 78c | 26.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 23.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 75c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.