TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,902

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfe6…1bfabacked No0c45,526$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0611741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd8f…1f24backed No56c1,308$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No24c516.42$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes31c459.8$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.755,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes39c413.61$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.7657614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No5c375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes56c358.76$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.863836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes48c355.17$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes38c279.45$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.41,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No55c249.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3773…f0ddbacked No67c237.7$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.23756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No35c223.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9363323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes53c217.08$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7610642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes35c198.36$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.641,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes67c194.49$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.946240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes52c183.49$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.37146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c67…a109backed Yes52c171$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.096041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No32c153.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.82,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No66c149.58$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.111,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes56c149.55$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.831,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c147.97$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.232,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c68…7936backed Yes45c135.8$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5910784.1%90 W · 17 L+30.1wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+66%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No66c118.2$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No14c116.38$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.937,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c114.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.262,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes39c107.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No47c106.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5019547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Yes52c106.17$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.484341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes28c103.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.379,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes68c96.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.194143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No22c91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.191,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c89.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7370133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes42c88.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.083441.2%14 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No27c84.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4499962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes54c75.77$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9918255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No72c75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7572837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c73.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb8…207ebacked Yes40c70.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.711384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick64cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c68.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No59c65.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.641,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03fd…0cc2backed Yes48c63.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.131258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes29c61.59$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f68…c408backed Yes25c60$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.32548%12 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes36c57.11$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.542544%11 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c56.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.323,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes42c55.8$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2415047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x90a8…7a97backed Yes35c53.29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.591741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked Yes39c49.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed Yes77c49.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759e…4d38backed No60c48.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.391816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes39c48.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.445048%24 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No60c48.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.839951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes44c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0411129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes34c46.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4794919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes24c44.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8320358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes68c44.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0825344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…95f4backed Yes66c43.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.93742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes34c42.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.362025%5 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+57.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes48c39.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes68c39.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7718164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0187…0200backed Yes32c37.58$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.386640.9%27 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No67c36.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1717855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes41c35.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2217138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd206…f1b3backed Yes43c34.26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.391346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No66c33.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9322934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c32.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.464,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No37c31.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6735058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No49c30.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9127464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed No55c27.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1111122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Yes45c26.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.766958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4de…f9c4backed No59c24.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.254346.5%20 W · 23 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick61cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes48c22.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.681,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No80c22.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0342469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes47c22.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes70c22.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6921547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes47c22.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6111362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4169…bb58backed Yes55c21.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.841241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes54c20.28$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3319047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb17…0cd7backed Yes57c19.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.383050%15 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1907…ac1abacked Yes59c18.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.593560%21 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes68c17.2$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.52944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.