Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebd3f21cc9135bd440707cbc9079f4c6bcc881387eff0823bf3d2031c27d078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 72c | 1,944$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.56 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…4d38backed Yes | 5c | 494.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 383.8$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 21c | 361.71$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 28c | 327.6$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 11c | 321.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 28c | 294.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 27c | 273.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 18c | 257.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…0cc2backed Yes | 25c | 240.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 33c | 237.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 234$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 223.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 12c | 201.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 14c | 200.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad8…a203backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 16c | 199.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 196.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…9de1backed Yes | 34c | 185.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 78c | 179.43$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 178.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 30c | 165.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 12c | 162.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 152.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 139.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 61c | 138.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 17c | 135.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 59c | 133.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 125.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 11c | 124.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 70c | 118.71$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…5d37backed Yes | 10c | 116.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 14c | 101.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 30c | 95.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 12c | 95.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed Yes | 25c | 94.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 29c | 92.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 61c | 87.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 84.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 84.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x886d…c586backed Yes | 26c | 62.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 42c | 62.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…485abacked Yes | 18c | 56.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 54c | 54.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 34c | 54.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 48.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 47.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 46c | 47.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 30c | 46.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 38c | 42.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 64c | 41.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 40.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 29c | 39.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 64c | 39.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 66c | 37.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 74c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 72c | 31.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 28.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 26.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked Yes | 67c | 21.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 57c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes | 64c | 18.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 71c | 15.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.