TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x891a…75ac

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst La Liga at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1637.5%6 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+185.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$142.31
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29%+$14.49
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,200
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$26,992Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$26,991.94
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+233.5%+$210.17
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$179.9
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$3,578Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$3,578.14
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+2,692.1%+$15,155.76
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+145.9%+$189.46
Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+584.9%+$292.47
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+70.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.13
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+771.1%+$116.53
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.29
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$7.89
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.81
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+89.7%+$22.95
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+111.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+86.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+47.1%+$4.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.