Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6d0dfd67c7ebfc236720d513ee20ba723c698ed2cf4af208b35834b7702588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 14,041$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 77c | 1,241$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.82 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 6c | 699.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 625$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 557.61$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.39 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 501.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 54c | 496.69$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.33 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 32c | 466.02$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.84 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 48c | 437.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 42c | 380$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 37c | 326.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 292.76$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 275.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 61c | 260.77$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 244.24$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.41 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed Yes | 60c | 244.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.34 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 229.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 47c | 217.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 6c | 208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 29c | 195.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.09 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 23c | 184.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 182.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 176.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 171.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 42c | 145.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…fb87backed Yes | 33c | 141.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 22c | 130.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 130.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 78c | 127.02$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…0367backed Yes | 19c | 125.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 22c | 122.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 120.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 118.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 61c | 118.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 117.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 63c | 113.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 19c | 110.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 29c | 110.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 29c | 102.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 99.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed No | 48c | 97.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 31c | 96.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.72 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 28c | 96.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 23c | 93.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 93.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 69c | 90.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 77c | 89.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…3a30backed Yes | 50c | 89.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 77c | 87.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ed…87f5backed Yes | 21c | 86.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 23c | 82.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 81.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Yes | 46c | 79.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 67c | 78.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 76.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 68c | 73.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…7628backed No | 16c | 71.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 70c | 69.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…14a8backed Yes | 26c | 55.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 77c | 55.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 22c | 55.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 27c | 53.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 43c | 52.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a20…bf45backed Yes | 31c | 51.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…345dbacked Yes | 30c | 51.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 38c | 49.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 29c | 49.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 78c | 48.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 47.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 26c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 35c | 45.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 51c | 41.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 40.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 35c | 39.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 79c | 37.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…ae11backed Yes | 71c | 36.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 76c | 35.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 79c | 34.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 34.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 32c | 32.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 32.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8812backed No | 72c | 32.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 31.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 45c | 28.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 77c | 26.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes | 42c | 26.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 25.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…4d57backed No | 78c | 24.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.