Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc9b99e78aa76627d9dd9cb766fb6395b77cc25c03220850911d1f2976973782
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4aa0…8b8ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,019$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…7628backed Yes | 0c | 4,511$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,082$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.94 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 9c | 2,257$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.09 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,506$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed Yes | 5c | 1,147$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 74c | 1,120$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.89 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…0516backed Yes | 5c | 1,051$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 80c | 736.2$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.54 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 17c | 599.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 579.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 22c | 514.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 17c | 455.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 61c | 436.19$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 374.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…997cbacked No | 30c | 319.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.59 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…a2acbacked Yes | 79c | 317.86$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 316.15$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 41c | 315.65$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 299.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…4b39backed Yes | 65c | 293.28$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 59c | 291.49$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 42c | 290.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.64 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 245.14$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 68c | 241.21$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes | 77c | 233.71$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 64c | 218.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 5c | 215.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 207.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes | 8c | 196.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 8c | 181.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 174.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 13c | 171.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 19c | 169.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 163.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed No | 69c | 158$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e57…ddc3backed Yes | 64c | 149.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 10c | 142.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 140.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…fcc5backed Yes | 19c | 139.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 13c | 139.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 139.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade9…1990backed Yes | 42c | 138.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…5c32backed Yes | 59c | 137.83$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…ee90backed Yes | 14c | 135.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 26c | 112.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 37c | 109.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 11c | 103.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 15c | 99.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 18c | 95.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed Yes | 49c | 94.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 93.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…8a87backed Yes | 76c | 90.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 84.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 28c | 84.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…ae25backed Yes | 12c | 84.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 63.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 70c | 63.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 34c | 54.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 34c | 54.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 53c | 51.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed Yes | 80c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…75acbacked No | 53c | 48.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 42.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…30e2backed Yes | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 71c | 41.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadc8…9490backed Yes | 68c | 34.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac4…c8ccbacked Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes | 74c | 21.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…8d47backed Yes | 54c | 21.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 58c | 20.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 53c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 76c | 19.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ed…87f5backed Yes | 66c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 76c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.