TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,148
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,148 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4aa0…8b8ebacked Yes0c9,019$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-77.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…7628backed Yes0c4,511$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes6c4,082$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.9443021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01f2…c3debacked Yes9c2,257$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0912538.4%48 W · 77 L-18.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes1c1,506$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc2…bf53backed Yes5c1,147$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.68742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed No74c1,120$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.8937942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cd…0516backed Yes5c1,051$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.141957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No80c736.2$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.544887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes17c599.76$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1946733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c579.7$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes22c514.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7215433.8%52 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd190…c9b2backed Yes17c455.64$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.412520%5 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No61c436.19$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9856424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c374.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked No30c319.17$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.592339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb869…a2acbacked Yes79c317.86$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.651662.5%10 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes42c316.15$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.145,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes41c315.65$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.335233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes10c299.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a9…4b39backed Yes65c293.28$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.531450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes59c291.49$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.423549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes42c290.57$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.6428718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No71c245.14$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.972,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No68c241.21$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.991,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e35…ddcebacked Yes77c233.71$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.991866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No64c218.81$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7246444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes5c215.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.781,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c207.45$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.214,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9d72backed Yes8c196.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.761442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+376.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2232…e889backed Yes8c181.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5316529.1%48 W · 117 L+12.9wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+62.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes25c174.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.392,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes13c171.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes19c169.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.71,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c163.13$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.122,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf387…5414backed No69c158$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.143729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid+64.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e57…ddc3backed Yes64c149.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.441040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-46.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc969…0377backed Yes10c142.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.538512.9%11 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes12c140.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…fcc5backed Yes19c139.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.85580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes13c139.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2652444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c139.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.081,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade9…1990backed Yes42c138.14$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.541010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc8…5c32backed Yes59c137.83$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed5…ee90backed Yes14c135.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.311844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+39.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes26c112.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7337533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes37c109.35$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5812733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes11c103.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0926533.2%88 W · 177 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes15c99.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.997728.6%22 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes18c95.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.684946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307f…c327backed Yes49c94.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c93.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.117,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf84f…8a87backed Yes76c90.17$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes33c84.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.081,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ac…c678backed Yes28c84.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.191241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bae…ae25backed Yes12c84.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.952,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c63.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes70c63.06$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48a3…5799backed Yes26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes34c54.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6826142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf625…ae8abacked Yes34c54.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.516561.5%40 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+41.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No53c51.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2298160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1772837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2315435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9481…b947backed Yes80c49$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.15966.7%6 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick78cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x891a…75acbacked No53c48.56$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick24cpaid+70.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes60c42.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.699961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0358…30e2backed Yes46c41.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…0b95backed No71c41.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.94566.7%30 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c40.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5570770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2e…c9e1backed No36c39.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3520431.9%65 W · 139 L-14.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xadc8…9490backed Yes68c34.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac4…c8ccbacked Yes60c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No73c29.52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c4…b153backed No76c29.29$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.984864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No72c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfab6…f3e1backed Yes74c21.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.173246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x052e…8d47backed Yes54c21.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes58c20.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.773964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe036…55eebacked Yes53c20.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.822142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes76c19.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.998236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06ed…87f5backed Yes66c18.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+140.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No76c15.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6212374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe798…5204backed No74c13.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-30.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.