TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbdbb…7bb8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
54
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Weather, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT3964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$2.57
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+48.5%+$24.26
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+56%+$5.94
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+40.5%+$11.74
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on April 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.83
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$10.88
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on April 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$11.38
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.04
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+84.9%+$17.8
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.77
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$7.54
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$13.73
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.73
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+64.8%+$8.48
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.21
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.83
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.86
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$7.36
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+95.2%+$20.51
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+170.8%+$29.75
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.37
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+96.8%+$23.13
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.17
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$32.2
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$106.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oxford United FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$60.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$4.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.