Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89415470109a368cadc38b18e46a696c7fc3628f23b3c7dd9c556a9fba25202c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 62c | 771.71$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.55 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 472.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 392.36$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 350.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 24c | 336.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 68c | 297.43$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 36c | 293.01$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 214.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 79c | 175.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed No | 79c | 162.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 152.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 145.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 62c | 137.02$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.49 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…69f2backed Yes | 33c | 136.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 49c | 120.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 43c | 110.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 106.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 74c | 104.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 55c | 100.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 75c | 98.48$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 61c | 97.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 97.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 59c | 93.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 87.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 86.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 48c | 84.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 75.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…825ebacked No | 59c | 70.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 31c | 64.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 34c | 63.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 50c | 61.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 55.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 21c | 55.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 44c | 54.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 53.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…54fcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 57c | 48.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 47.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 51c | 47.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 44.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 43.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 24c | 43.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 33c | 42.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 69c | 42.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 33c | 41.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 45c | 41.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 34c | 41.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…c395backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…a12cbacked Yes | 60c | 38.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 40c | 36.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 33c | 33.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 78c | 33.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 50c | 31.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 54c | 31.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 66c | 29.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 28.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 45c | 28.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 62c | 24.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 80c | 24.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 21.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 59c | 20.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab27…ab66backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 59c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.