Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d5d296e18362e96fc00a77d1b6e43f81f78debbdbe662f4fa9ad89659ede591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6404…2a20backed Yes | 34c | 735.21$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…2d15backed Yes | 42c | 667.15$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…825ebacked Yes | 43c | 639.75$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 16c | 374$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 312.06$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb1…03febacked No | 57c | 290.91$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 251.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 234.72$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 58c | 217.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 34c | 191.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 178.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 47c | 148.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked Yes | 43c | 146.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.12 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 12c | 146.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 40c | 136.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 60c | 135.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 26c | 129.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 42c | 128.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…bbccbacked No | 58c | 126.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 51c | 119.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 111.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 52c | 109.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…932bbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1e…cf5fbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 77c | 99.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 60c | 95.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec8…c23cbacked Yes | 52c | 94.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +633.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 55c | 92.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 59c | 89.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked No | 60c | 86.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 60c | 86.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.93 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 43c | 84.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…af43backed Yes | 46c | 82.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 56c | 79.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 77.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 71.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 68.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 30c | 66.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 39c | 65.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 36c | 63.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed No | 57c | 62.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…2a41backed No | 49c | 61.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 60.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 42c | 60.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 57c | 60.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 57.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 19c | 57.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked No | 52c | 56.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…470ebacked Yes | 39c | 55.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 64c | 55.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 73c | 54.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 54.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 46c | 53.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 54c | 52.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…54fcbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 36cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 44c | 49.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 46c | 48.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 53c | 47.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 35c | 46.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 68c | 43.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 29c | 42.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aac…9077backed Yes | 46c | 40.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 55c | 40.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1590…b65abacked Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 37c | 38.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 37.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 31c | 35.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 54c | 35.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 54c | 35.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 56c | 34.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…a952backed Yes | 57c | 33.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed Yes | 44c | 31.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 62c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…7a18backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 42c | 29.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed Yes | 46c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 46c | 29.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked Yes | 47c | 28.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 38c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 52c | 28.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 49c | 28.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 63c | 28.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed No | 66c | 25.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 78c | 24.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…ab6fbacked No | 59c | 23.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 58c | 22.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 49c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 53c | 22.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 51c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.