TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc17f…d96a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
118
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Tennis at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT9445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 94 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$17.1
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$13.78
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+53.4%+$6.45
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+103.3%+$15.24
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+236.1%+$28.1
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$15.6
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$19.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$10.64
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+74.5%+$25.18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$15.96
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$11.5
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.95
Showing 25 of 94 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+131.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will West Ham vs. Everton end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST+227.6%+$45.52
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$72.7
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 F1 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Djorden Santos vs. Ozzy Diazbacked Santos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10.05
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$21.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$19.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Starsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 13, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Liquid win LoL Worlds 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 11, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Slovan Bratislava win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$54.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Berachain airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Panthers vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.