Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e7a61461738844c0f62b5d340b059d4dc63e7a5f02ee8ba7fc4bd128af605f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 266.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 243.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.69 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 24c | 210.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 63c | 209.21$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 152.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 138.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 52c | 123.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 76c | 111.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 108$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.4 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 18c | 104$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 45c | 91.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 81.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 78.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 51c | 71.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…b3cdbacked No | 17c | 70.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +500.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 36c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 18c | 62.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 18c | 61.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 37c | 61.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 33c | 60.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…3392backed No | 18c | 60.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +127%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 19c | 58.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed No | 21c | 54.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked No | 20c | 53.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 51.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 30c | 47.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 47c | 43.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 44c | 41.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 47c | 41.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…fc2dbacked Yes | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 36.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 61c | 34.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 30.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 25.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 24.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 22.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 68c | 17.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.