Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1481910a8827e0a4f5065c590e27f6410648ef152add11c8dadd108d2564ce2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 413.28$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 6c | 295.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.34 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 4c | 281.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.9 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 60c | 264.43$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 250.4$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 6c | 204.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 6c | 188.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.42 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 7c | 169.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 14c | 164.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 15c | 116.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 55c | 94.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 87.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 87.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 85.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 18c | 83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 15c | 80.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 77.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 76.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 25c | 72.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 20c | 67.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 53.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 23c | 49.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…e79dbacked No | 78c | 23.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 19.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.