Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5a55e93e7b6be450744d40f8a6d60404f1b5a1f7b8879b6c6cc63b8d272a91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,338
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 64c | 754.33$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.08 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 333.63$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 169.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 167.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 34c | 154.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 125.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 67c | 83.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 81.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 75.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…af6dbacked No | 72c | 69.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 65.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 46c | 65.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 42c | 63.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…fc2dbacked Yes | 38c | 62.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 49.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 41c | 48.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 38c | 47.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 53c | 46.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 59c | 45.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 36c | 44.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 36c | 42.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 39c | 38.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 38c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 66c | 37.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 67c | 32.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 36c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 66c | 26.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 59c | 20.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 61c | 20.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked No | 77c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 59c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.