Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b0c5fae8723aa8e4780632f5ea78f837a80f6ea5bf4bb253b58c18c40cdacee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed No | 1c | 3,313$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 777.2$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 570.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 44c | 487.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.54 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 399.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 314.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 19c | 311.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 73c | 305.86$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 234.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 189$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 173.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 52c | 171.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…9a31backed No | 69c | 169.37$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 167.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 67c | 162.52$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 145.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 30c | 144.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 142.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 125$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 37c | 118.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.58 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 33c | 117.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 37c | 109.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 98.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 97.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 32c | 85.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 33c | 84.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 30c | 82.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 40c | 80.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 55c | 70.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 58c | 69.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 67.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 38c | 67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 62.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 59.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 34c | 59.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 52.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 37c | 50.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x724f…a426backed Yes | 32c | 49.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 43c | 48.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 35c | 47.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 45.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 45c | 44.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 43.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 59c | 42.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 37c | 39.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 42c | 38.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…bd51backed Yes | 33c | 36.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 47c | 34.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked No | 60c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 70c | 31.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 28.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 66c | 28.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 75c | 28.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a7…396dbacked Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 24.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 65c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 20.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 56c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 17.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.