Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ab6f9d7a650e373a188d29217221c8d66704c4e17ff90952398c36050140e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad44…4ef4backed Yes | 1c | 1,465$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 24c | 411.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 11c | 405.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 74c | 402.18$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 48c | 375.01$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 37c | 363.16$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 58c | 288.96$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 260.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…e333backed No | 46c | 254.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5e…932fbacked Yes | 28c | 227.13$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 34c | 220.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 213.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 9c | 209.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 19c | 204.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 202.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…0beabacked Yes | 43c | 201.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 59c | 199.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 13c | 197.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 193.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed No | 79c | 174.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 167.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 18c | 166.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 157.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.66 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 146.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 137.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 136.3$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 64c | 127.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 40c | 126.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 29c | 123$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 26c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 24c | 109.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 104.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 98.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 95.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 16c | 94.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 91.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 87.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 87.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 52c | 86.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 53c | 84.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 72c | 83.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 37c | 80.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 50c | 79.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 76.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 35c | 70.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…54c7backed Yes | 44c | 69.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 70c | 69.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 36c | 68.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 65.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…0629backed Yes | 33c | 59.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked Yes | 20c | 58.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes | 35c | 57.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 56.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…a384backed No | 64c | 54.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 35c | 45.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…bdddbacked Yes | 33c | 42.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed No | 75c | 41.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 43c | 40.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 78c | 37.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 32.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 31c | 32.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 69c | 31.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87b4…2656backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 63c | 26.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 65c | 24.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 68c | 24.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 65c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 75c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…0b82backed Yes | 69c | 21.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.