Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc067cf983778eeb7cf1efb803816a195c07b99e2dbb149ac726dc9233b5ac880
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed Yes | 1c | 3,338$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 6c | 1,161$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 793.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 5c | 629.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 12c | 431.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 39c | 374.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.97 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 22c | 328.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…0beabacked Yes | 25c | 317.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 261.26$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 258.26$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 256.94$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 236.1$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…d6ddbacked Yes | 23c | 233.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 30c | 226.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 51c | 223.2$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 34c | 219.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 215.03$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6958…1252backed Yes | 34c | 179.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 179.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 58c | 171.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 32c | 171.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 165.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 48c | 161.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes | 53c | 160.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 49c | 159.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 64c | 156.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5e…932fbacked Yes | 16c | 153.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 142.4$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 66c | 141.88$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 139$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 132.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 62c | 129.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 47c | 126.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 65c | 123.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 32c | 123$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 44c | 112.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 102.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed No | 72c | 101.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 33c | 98.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 98.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 97.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 84.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 36c | 82.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed Yes | 29c | 80.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 16c | 76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 75.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 34c | 74.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 29c | 74.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 56c | 72.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed No | 68c | 64.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 52c | 55.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 41c | 54.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 32c | 51.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 43c | 51.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 35c | 49.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 72c | 47.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed No | 78c | 42.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 63c | 38.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 36.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 34.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaada…160bbacked Yes | 56c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 32.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 38c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 27.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 76c | 26.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afe…13f4backed No | 64c | 23.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b7…f18dbacked No | 45c | 23.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 64c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 22.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 76c | 22.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.