TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5714…ae10backed Yes73c1,376$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.06944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a1c…73f1backed No1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf3f…cd87backed No3c972.97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.442630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc713…f0bcbacked No2c645.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed No4c499.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.889832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No22c401.89$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6461821.2%131 W · 487 L-34.2wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No21c322$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.135,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No21c296.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.11,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No12c292$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.044,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes45c285.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.725933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c278.96$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.193,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked Yes5c270.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.241516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No15c236.01$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3524736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No28c222.69$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.394,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No50c205$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No39c196$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.864,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No14c188.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6882562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No54c176.96$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.612,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes29c159.34$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.99,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c155.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.657,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No34c133.86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes63c130.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7335854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8814…4a9ebacked No13c122.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f16…063dbacked No63c113.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.373348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No54c104.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6897570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7928142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de8…e8bfbacked No74c99.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.66887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick72cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes46c98.16$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.735,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes44c94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes54c92.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.324029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes28c88.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.21,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No27c75.41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6835058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No55c67.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2652571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No54c65.26$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No55c63.93$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No54c63.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fc…b0fabacked No70c62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…4f55backed No70c56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c54.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.99,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No53c52.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1812057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes44c50.73$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x409c…4379backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No71c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed No47c49.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.59035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes63c45.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes77c44.52$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4238258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes48c44.1$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No56c43.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.942762.8%268 W · 159 L+16.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes51c42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4619037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…55a5backed Yes30c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+50.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes34c41.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7742049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes43c40.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3325946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8123…9975backed Yes30c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa82…ea2dbacked Yes30c36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+92.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbca…cb90backed Yes43c34.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.83850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No71c34.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.484065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes68c32.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2961676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbadf…9abebacked Yes56c31.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.69475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No49c30.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9514666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.193,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes38c29.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.467544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No45c29.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4431050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No53c29.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.752,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes43c29.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.841,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes55c29.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1285049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes53c28.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.23070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No67c28.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.631,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No58c26.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17f…d96abacked Yes47c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.789445.7%43 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No58c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No44c25.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fa…13b5backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked No59c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7546148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed Yes51c23.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0296…ad01backed Yes51c23.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.721866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked No56c22.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.587771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2386362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No50c20.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4712758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x872f…ab24backed Yes48c20.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e53…59debacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1153…707fbacked Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84475%33 W · 11 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+27.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x87a2…2250backed No54c19.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7517066.5%113 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No56c18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1027769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No66c15.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0931866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No70c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4617570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes76c13.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1918368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.