Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb44c5246435549c13ddfe3a1e884950c558e5367c0446ce6f8a81f9211f8934b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1e9…62a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,028$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 5c | 570.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 391.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 14c | 262.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 13c | 219.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 199.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 191.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 191.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 148.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 141.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f0…1428backed No | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 8c | 122.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 10c | 119.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 26c | 115.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 16c | 113.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 27c | 107.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 103.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc2…9762backed No | 80c | 99.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 73.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 19c | 72.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 79c | 69.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 67.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed Yes | 31c | 65.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 29c | 50.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…4379backed Yes | 20c | 50.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…33c1backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 56c | 47.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 32c | 31.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 65c | 26.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…f771backed No | 74c | 20.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 80c | 18.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.