Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2512cb7b892993d88a3f3a66ea7b0e35e5d349d69fd43c8290ce1caea0b1a09f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 49c | 1,092$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.29 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 2c | 909.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42e…59e1backed Yes | 26c | 291.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 219.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 10c | 195.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 176.03$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 167.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 146.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 27c | 119.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 118.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 44c | 116.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 31c | 102.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…00c1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 35c | 99.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 28c | 98.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 26c | 79.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 73.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 35c | 70.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 66.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 52c | 57.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…6ca1backed No | 71c | 56.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 33c | 54.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 56c | 53.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 56c | 53.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 58c | 51.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 54c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 76c | 49.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 77c | 46.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe8…9f16backed Yes | 30c | 46.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 63c | 44.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 44.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 49c | 42.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 57c | 37.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked No | 57c | 34.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 57c | 31.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed Yes | 40c | 29.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 42c | 29.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 27.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 53c | 25.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0e58backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 48c | 20.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 17.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…a109backed No | 68c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 67c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.