Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffe5688e22037d3c046ae1e2c3664913e4cb4eebbf1429c8476f5b7e6b4b61a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2097…7dc3backed Yes | 1c | 40,122$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 18c | 3,563$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.43 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes | 7c | 1,533$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.26 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 21c | 924.36$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.78 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d5…8bd4backed Yes | 8c | 727.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 38c | 448.96$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 17c | 393.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 26c | 356$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 42c | 353.4$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes | 9c | 348.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…aa32backed No | 71c | 348.51$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 40c | 304.25$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 291.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 4c | 284.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 257.49$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 19c | 250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…c151backed Yes | 30c | 245.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 224.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 209.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 209.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…ef63backed No | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 201.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…6e05backed No | 80c | 200.81$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 20c | 200.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…71adbacked Yes | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 44c | 179.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 72c | 171.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 34c | 171.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 168.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 153.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 20c | 152.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 15c | 137.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…6a80backed No | 70c | 136.38$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 80c | 135.71$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 21c | 127.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 42c | 120.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 118.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 13c | 117.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 112.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed No | 57c | 105.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 20c | 101.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 100.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…24d3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 32c | 97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 74c | 82.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 59c | 73.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 64c | 70.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 17c | 68.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 67.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 66.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 59.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 25c | 55.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…8d25backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…a8f6backed No | 74c | 49.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…7af9backed Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 80c | 47.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…a372backed Yes | 43c | 45.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 76c | 45.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…b1b1backed Yes | 26c | 44.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 41.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 41.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…f4d1backed Yes | 27c | 40.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 40.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 76c | 39.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 32c | 39.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…d485backed Yes | 29c | 38.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 78c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 37.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 39c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 74c | 31.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…d3b4backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 70c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…42f0backed No | 77c | 28.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 35c | 28.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.