TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes1c40,122$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.81631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes18c3,563$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.4334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes7c1,533$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.261513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes21c924.36$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7815639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d5…8bd4backed Yes8c727.26$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes38c448.96$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes17c393.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c356$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes42c353.4$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes9c348.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3862…aa32backed No71c348.51$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked Yes40c304.25$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1236471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes18c291.68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.715,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes4c284.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c257.49$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes19c250$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.528441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53d3…c151backed Yes30c245.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes33c224.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.693,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c209.98$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.64,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c209.17$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.624,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc910…ef63backed No73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes23c201.69$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.94,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…6e05backed No80c200.81$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.641942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes20c200.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cce…71adbacked Yes31c193.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.753540%14 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes44c179.73$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8554043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No72c171.27$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes34c171.12$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c168.06$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.022,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No67c153.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.31,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2946…8eb4backed Yes20c152.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8224539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes23c150$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.523633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes15c137.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee1…6a80backed No70c136.38$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.013100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No80c135.71$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes15c133$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes21c127.18$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9718837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes42c120.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c118.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e9…6df4backed Yes13c117.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.975133.3%17 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No75c112.55$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…6178backed No57c105.47$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes20c101.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1926828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes30c100.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.182,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3193…24d3backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5019148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9003…4c59backed Yes32c97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.918531.8%27 W · 58 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed No74c82.55$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.554367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d34…a917backed Yes41c78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.165534.5%19 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No59c73.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.098955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No64c70.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2835058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes17c68.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.316016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No74c67.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No76c66.39$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.852,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes43c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0213424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c59.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.872,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No78c59.35$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.053,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.881,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes25c55.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.946431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No74c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.714833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1454867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x744a…0ea8backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.978663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…8d25backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…a8f6backed No74c49.57$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.093865.8%25 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes31c49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.271850%9 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+48.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd611…53c8backed No80c47.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.527277.8%56 W · 16 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96be…a372backed Yes43c45.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed No76c45.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.919764.5%127 W · 70 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61b8…e749backed No65c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.754658.7%27 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9345…b1b1backed Yes26c44.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.532045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf504…132ebacked No71c42.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.451546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes28c41.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c41.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.333,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a7…f4d1backed Yes27c40.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No63c40.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.911,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.67736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked No76c39.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3913238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes32c39.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9e…d485backed Yes29c38.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No78c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes30c37.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5133535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes38c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes39c36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.043935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No74c31.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.411,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-47.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb8e…d3b4backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.52975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.693734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No70c28.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6616968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e06…42f0backed No77c28.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes35c28.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.