TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,864
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,678

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,864 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed No1c999.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68d5…8bd4backed No3c893.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes66c819.78$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.335429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No2c749.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.491,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes44c704.48$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.1215639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked Yes72c582.76$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.746471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c558.3$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.813,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No14c502.71$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7646626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No10c482.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.562,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes24c382.23$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.941631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes34c373.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.621,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c340.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.782,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No66c327.11$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.0299963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c301.25$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.5256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes44c279.94$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.845,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No8c271.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.711,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes40c263.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.163935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes35c257.74$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0223633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c256.37$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No55c233.45$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2616335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes43c231.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7610141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes41c223.21$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.8121236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f4…7343backed Yes49c213.88$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No32c204.2$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.798955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f0…20febacked No5c202.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121516.6%10 W · 141 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc910…ef63backed No75c201.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c199.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No48c195.47$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.242,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes29c179.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.464533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes40c174.32$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.323324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3946…fc1dbacked Yes43c144.02$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.79757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+46.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No73c132.49$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.431560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes29c125$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.751145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No37c123.54$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.91,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No27c122.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No25c121.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.211,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c116.29$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.029,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes44c115.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3818837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d34…a917backed Yes48c115.7$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.635534.5%19 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c113.75$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.638,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes18c108$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.564228.6%12 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes33c106$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.712846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c105.12$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No58c102.38$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.233,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6128441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e3…5652backed Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.093935.9%14 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No49c95.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.838758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c95.02$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.82,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e06…42f0backed Yes39c92.43$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.431346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3862…aa32backed Yes36c92.24$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.99875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes34c87.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8314040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c87.68$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.947,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c86.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No29c85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4539158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf504…132ebacked No61c82.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes41c78.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.948833%29 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No55c77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.354,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.922733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No58c72.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No56c69.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.862,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes31c63.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.684124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes61c62.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5642849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x265a…ca42backed Yes41c60.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaada…160bbacked Yes39c58.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.513548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No21c57.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1935058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes43c57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.494447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a7…f4d1backed Yes35c55.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.74911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes36c55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.21376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick51cpaid+53.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36c7…e7fdbacked Yes45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306147.5%29 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes23c54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No58c52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96be…a372backed Yes42c51.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes23c51.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4993034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No35c51.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1036…0244backed No56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3214833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf759…644dbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3078663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3070133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…8d25backed Yes51c49.34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.341643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No28c48.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6941258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccdd…b6d3backed Yes23c48.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.22520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744a…0ea8backed Yes55c48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.683151.6%16 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c46.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.453,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9345…b1b1backed Yes41c46.2$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.332045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9e…d485backed Yes41c44.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.39862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb70d…253abacked Yes35c42.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8415152.3%79 W · 72 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No57c42.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.151,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes24c42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No57c41.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.916968%115 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes29c41.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.766431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes42c40.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5411038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes25c40.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.385343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes43c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2324238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb37f…86cbbacked No76c39.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.