TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,355

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,592 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f65…9524backed Yes0c19,300$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c9,121$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.733,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes11c1,385$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.892,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes13c1,155$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1434624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf83…8508backed Yes15c1,018$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.591346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes4c733.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5196313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed No74c722.82$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.8315639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes7c700.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4534918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes10c532.82$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.551,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes25c432.82$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.212,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes23c333.82$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes25c324.23$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0446626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes16c304.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53d3…c151backed Yes21c301.75$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.341330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes15c291.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.321631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47b0…bd29backed Yes8c272.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes21c271.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.035,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes11c270.2$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.551,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes11c260$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf6…5219backed Yes27c250$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No76c244.34$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.961560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c235.15$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.452,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes14c224.8$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5816530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes35c198.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes20c187.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.977,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No69c184.42$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.5899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes19c175$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.635429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5da…de02backed Yes15c170.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.75922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick12cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e06…42f0backed Yes21c155.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No79c139.76$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes21c139.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.264,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe9e4…2d2cbacked No76c131.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.271850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c122.9$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.238,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes12c114$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.330428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d34…a917backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45534.5%19 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2828441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c88.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.571,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe49f…b083backed Yes32c86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2918837.2%70 W · 118 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes22c77.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.946431.3%20 W · 44 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c75.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes17c72.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.031,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes21c68.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c66.91$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No79c64.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61a7…f4d1backed Yes26c59.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-68.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265a…ca42backed Yes31c59.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes25c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No79c57.13$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes23c55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No72c54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.398565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No70c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No72c51.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.463143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No74c50.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1854867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad3…7715backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55633.9%19 W · 37 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.958732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No68c49.49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9159…f1a8backed Yes32c45.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.626439.1%25 W · 39 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes29c45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa139…5bc2backed Yes26c44.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5211240.2%45 W · 67 L-6.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9345…b1b1backed Yes29c44.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12045%9 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdd…b6d3backed Yes25c44.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e43…2e9cbacked No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.252458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c41.86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.123,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c40.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.282,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb29…0171backed Yes29c40.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.625343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5cf…9c8cbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101225%3 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked No76c39.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4716626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf504…132ebacked No78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.461546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No78c36.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2143859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb37f…86cbbacked No76c32.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5dc4…0705backed Yes33c30.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-62%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-47.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c28.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.679,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5d0…f098backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No63c25.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3690734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No74c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.626828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No62c23.7$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1167336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No66c22.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5517570.3%123 W · 52 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No74c20.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c15.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.669,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.