Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x886a4849b303fcbfac2b07a99856db874bdade8526fecf2a6efb84e8765814fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 3c | 1,798$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked No | 64c | 1,194$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.64 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 12c | 930.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 899.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 6c | 886.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…b51fbacked No | 73c | 774.7$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 734.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 22c | 685.66$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 9c | 676.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 2c | 612.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 19c | 572.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 42c | 541.62$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.23 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 530.74$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.26 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 29c | 499.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 24c | 450.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 446.06$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 383.12$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 5c | 380.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ea…0d1dbacked Yes | 34c | 354.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 42c | 353.1$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 3c | 350.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 338.26$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 336.94$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 21c | 323.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 7c | 310.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 283.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42f…6572backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 261.91$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.18 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 13c | 247$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 242.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 6c | 241.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 229.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 21c | 228.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 227.98$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 18c | 220.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a57…231cbacked Yes | 21c | 207.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 15c | 195.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 188.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 16c | 161$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 54c | 159.91$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 23c | 147.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 18c | 130.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 20c | 125.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 43c | 125.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 40c | 125.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 45c | 125.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 125$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes | 21c | 120.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 17c | 118.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 36c | 112.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 112.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 112.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…722ebacked Yes | 32c | 107.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 22c | 103.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 15c | 97.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 93.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 92.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 23c | 88.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…4a26backed Yes | 47c | 83.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 83.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 62c | 80.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 26c | 70.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 78c | 66.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 65.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 18c | 64.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb2…ad6fbacked Yes | 18c | 60.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 163 | 24.5%40 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 34c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 30c | 56.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 76c | 56.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 27c | 55.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed No | 69c | 54.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…d080backed Yes | 19c | 51.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 49.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 47.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 45.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 45.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…a2edbacked Yes | 42c | 44.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 26c | 43.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…d2f6backed Yes | 47c | 42.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 73c | 42.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 41.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 43c | 41.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 40.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebf…fa2cbacked No | 72c | 38.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.