Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22cab6922b1ffd6a0e6e13946aa9934058f6b912bb4b1bffe30b374ef6d348d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $180,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 1c | 57,135$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.54 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 20,611$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.2 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…993bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,373$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e03…6ac2backed Yes | 1c | 1,864$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 3c | 1,631$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 1,450$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfd…430dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,075$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 4c | 1,058$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 58c | 1,037$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.89 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 74c | 1,000$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 896.05$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 5c | 667.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 41c | 599.98$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.85 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 534.73$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 37c | 514.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 2c | 513.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 57c | 471.48$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 68c | 470.42$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.29 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 61c | 458.35$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.22 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 448.25$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes | 67c | 426.34$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 414.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 75c | 401.2$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.55 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 378.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 6c | 351.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 345.97$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…db54backed Yes | 39c | 327.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 29c | 306.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 299.93$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed Yes | 68c | 280.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 18c | 266.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 262.83$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 252.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 26c | 251.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.38 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 17c | 229.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 50c | 227.78$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0519…a34fbacked No | 60c | 199.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 30c | 196.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.68 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 80c | 187.45$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 8c | 179.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 51c | 170.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 54c | 162.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 161.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 28c | 158.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 54c | 156.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 60c | 153.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 76c | 148.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.27 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 77c | 142.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 37c | 140.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 37c | 135.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 35c | 134.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 64c | 128.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 127.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 26c | 112.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 101.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 59c | 101.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 15c | 99.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 68c | 96.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 18c | 82.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked No | 15c | 70.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 34c | 65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 70c | 61.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 24c | 60.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 50c | 56.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 66c | 48.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b32…a197backed Yes | 52c | 48.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 31c | 47.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 54c | 44.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 39.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 55c | 38.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 71c | 38.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x318c…b4c8backed Yes | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…4487backed Yes | 68c | 34.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 33.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 69c | 31.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…5339backed No | 39c | 30.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 41c | 30.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 79c | 29.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c88…0ac8backed Yes | 61c | 29.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 28.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 58c | 28.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…29c8backed Yes | 73c | 28.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.