TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$180,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes1c57,135$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.5411438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes2c20,611$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.243021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…993bbacked Yes0c9,373$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes0c4,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes1c2,600$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e03…6ac2backed Yes1c1,864$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.05933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes3c1,631$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8811926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c1,450$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.294,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bfd…430dbacked Yes1c1,075$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2190%0 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes4c1,058$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes58c1,037$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.891,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38cc…f88ebacked No74c1,000$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.983638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+237.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes35c896.05$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.0195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes5c667.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.291,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked No41c599.98$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.8515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes66c534.73$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.155,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed Yes37c514.11$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.911330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes2c513.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.825742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes57c471.48$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.421,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes68c470.42$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2934624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No61c458.35$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.2231262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c448.25$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43c6…f4f2backed Yes67c426.34$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.64447.7%21 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c414.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.173,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes75c401.2$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.553450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No48c378.69$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.532,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed Yes6c351.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No69c345.97$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63e…db54backed Yes39c327.92$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes29c306.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9019848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c299.93$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.154,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes68c280.09$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes18c266.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…e43ebacked No75c262.83$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.3318060%108 W · 72 L-21.2wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-16.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No29c252.04$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.041,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No26c251.74$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3856424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes17c229.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1113423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No50c227.78$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8137942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes8c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.640242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0519…a34fbacked No60c199.99$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No30c196.09$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.6811038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c0…e3e5backed No80c187.45$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.712181%17 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.23per pick58cpaid+30.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes8c179.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.821,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes51c170.6$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.8325946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No54c162.81$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.381,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No51c161.75$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.983,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes28c158.64$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2644945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes54c156.13$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7324841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes60c153.17$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.21,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes76c148.81$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.274037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No77c142.03$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1435854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes37c140.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.311546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No37c135.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.2341258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No35c134.69$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8938258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes64c128.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.812828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.92,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No50c127.02$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.711,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No26c112.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4439159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes58c110$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2220928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No45c101.7$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.852,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes59c101.51$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3056434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.59634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes15c99.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes68c96.52$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.429017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes18c82.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e20…b34dbacked No15c70.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.29850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No36c69.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.813,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No34c65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.213,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes70c61.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.865944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No24c60.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8461760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No50c56.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No78c52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3344659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No66c48.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b32…a197backed Yes52c48.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.33742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No31c47.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1351553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No54c44.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4711334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes68c39.92$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0857659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed Yes55c38.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2439158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes71c38.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4629732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.041,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x318c…b4c8backed Yes65c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick70cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x963f…4487backed Yes68c34.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No80c33.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.882,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes69c31.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.98337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c2c…5339backed No39c30.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76b3…7d44backed No41c30.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9918449.5%91 W · 93 L-16.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes79c29.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.515466.9%103 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3c88…0ac8backed Yes61c29.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0157…5ac4backed Yes59c28.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e8…9c25backed Yes58c28.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86040%24 W · 36 L-8.1wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3b5…29c8backed Yes73c28.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.