Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3baa2f10a0098b368aad69ac6d359f933237386ba38f28ad901e1089a568a4cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 16c | 3,345$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.25 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 26c | 1,691$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.76 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,596$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.32 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 11c | 1,115$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.94 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…5b1cbacked No | 76c | 952.17$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.65 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 950.65$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 937.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.44 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 9c | 893.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 28c | 882.93$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.87 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 867$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 790.52$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.06 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 727.8$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 679.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.79 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 678.34$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.38 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 673.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 7c | 657.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.51 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 511.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 6c | 504.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.91 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 70c | 499.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 439.4$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.46 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 22c | 425.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.47 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 345.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 52c | 344.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.01 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 3c | 338.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.52 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 321.09$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.14 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 42c | 271.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed Yes | 35c | 262.24$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 20c | 257.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 30c | 229.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 48c | 216.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 9c | 195.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 6c | 193.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 27c | 175.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 46c | 165.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 7c | 165.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +612.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 47c | 162.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 7c | 162.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.13 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 37c | 161.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.89 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 62c | 154.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked No | 50c | 149.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 17c | 136.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 31c | 128.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.32 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 128.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 127.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 41c | 122.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 121.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…cbacbacked Yes | 13c | 112.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 36c | 109.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 28c | 108.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 107.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe591…b3f6backed Yes | 22c | 107.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.16 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 96.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes | 52c | 95.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 94.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 22c | 92.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 36c | 92.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 49c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e03…6ac2backed Yes | 23c | 90.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 65c | 77.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 74.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 18c | 70.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed No | 74c | 67.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 17c | 64.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 55c | 63.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 25c | 60.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 20c | 59.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…4a26backed Yes | 34c | 59.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 18c | 58.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed Yes | 52c | 57.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 72c | 55.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 45c | 55.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 20c | 55.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 41c | 49.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 24c | 47.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…1fb0backed Yes | 55c | 45.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 24c | 44.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 73c | 35.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 58c | 34.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 63c | 33.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 48c | 31.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…d96abacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.