Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1be62efc186b28e27a8417c96b3e8dcea4880659fb8b78c9c94e76285efe97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 436.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 355.12$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 74c | 269.9$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 12c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 230.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 221.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 208.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 208$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 27c | 204.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 22c | 179.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 23c | 174.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 149.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 8c | 141.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 23c | 139.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 137.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 15c | 129.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 22c | 125.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…b6e0backed No | 75c | 124.81$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 26c | 116.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 103.21$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 77c | 101.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 29c | 98.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…83d0backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02b7…cab7backed Yes | 33c | 91.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 74c | 89.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 12c | 85.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 84.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 30c | 83.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 26c | 79.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…30e5backed Yes | 33c | 79.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 76.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 75c | 73.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 17c | 61.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39e…88e2backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 58.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 25c | 54.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 54.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 28c | 53.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 50.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4436backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 48.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b43…b624backed Yes | 31c | 47.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 46.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 28c | 46.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 78c | 45.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 39.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 37.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1c2fbacked No | 71c | 37.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 28c | 36.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…ba1cbacked No | 72c | 36.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…6957backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 72c | 31.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 74c | 31.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…f375backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 28.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 78c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…aba2backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.