Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1217be75372dac39f0decddaaab43d4ef695b40be4b33c94130a76079b6f7964
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 8c | 1,783$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,144$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 18c | 760.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 633.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 51c | 493.65$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 47c | 461.34$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.81 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200b…722ebacked Yes | 36c | 458.12$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 414$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 41c | 363.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.2 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 361.53$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 355.24$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 46c | 347.64$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a2…fd96backed Yes | 10c | 309.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 272.77$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 268.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…a2edbacked Yes | 43c | 260.04$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 13c | 243.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 232.09$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 30c | 229.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 52c | 210.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 41c | 206.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.55 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 199.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba3…56aebacked Yes | 50c | 198.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 59c | 175.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 18c | 174.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 53c | 172.13$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 51c | 162.86$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 162.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 36c | 161.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 159.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 49c | 156.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 61c | 148.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a9…7404backed Yes | 55c | 144.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 39c | 142$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 141$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 140.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 54c | 136$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 55c | 135.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 116.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 37c | 113.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 45c | 111.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 48c | 104.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 54c | 102.43$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 49c | 101.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 100.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 33c | 100.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…5844backed Yes | 41c | 97.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b7…cab7backed Yes | 49c | 92.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 88.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 44c | 80.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 80.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 75.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 58c | 73.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 46c | 70.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 59c | 70.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 45c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…30e5backed Yes | 45c | 68.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 67.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed Yes | 61c | 65.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 64.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 57c | 62.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…2260backed Yes | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 52c | 58.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 34c | 57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 57c | 56.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 58c | 55.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…7770backed Yes | 51c | 54.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 53.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b19…462bbacked Yes | 47c | 53.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 30c | 52.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…f8edbacked No | 50c | 51.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…0884backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…314cbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79e…4436backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7584…17bbbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 61c | 49.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 63c | 48.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 37c | 48.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 47.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 47.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 47.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 60c | 45.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 42c | 45.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.