TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,075 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7331…bc39backed Yes8c1,783$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.089425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes3c1,144$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.022,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes18c760.24$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6234624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes4c633.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.991,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes51c493.65$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes47c461.34$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.815427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200b…722ebacked Yes36c458.12$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.841838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c414$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.913,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No41c363.2$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No62c361.53$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.1542160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No61c355.24$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.912,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes46c347.64$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67a2…fd96backed Yes10c309.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17711032.7%36 W · 74 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No57c272.77$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.712,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No53c268.36$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.084,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c9…a2edbacked Yes43c260.04$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes13c243.39$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes51c232.09$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.963,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3a…3047backed Yes30c229.64$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb541…169dbacked No52c210.74$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.554365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes41c206.26$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.5512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c199.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.471,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ba3…56aebacked Yes50c198.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No59c175.45$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6556424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes18c174.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6411926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes53c172.13$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.633836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes51c162.86$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c162.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes36c161.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.759634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes41c159.75$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No49c156.96$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.331,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No61c148.56$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a9…7404backed Yes55c144.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes39c142$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5613941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No69c141$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.293,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes37c140.71$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.237835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes54c136$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9811249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes55c135.03$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1346444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes52c116.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9565043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes37c113.73$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes45c111.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No48c104.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5739951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes54c102.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4711038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked No49c101.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7324736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No56c100.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes33c100.12$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.162828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5124539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab68…5844backed Yes41c97.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b7…cab7backed Yes49c92.52$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c88.67$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7183360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes51c85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes44c80.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.328551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No67c80.13$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.782,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.691444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No62c79.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.053764.9%24 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No45c75.7$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.369,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No58c73.59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes46c70.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9311546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No59c70.92$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No45c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7576…30e5backed Yes45c68.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes36c67.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed Yes61c65.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-67.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes24c64.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.743,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No57c62.94$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.248257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f5…2260backed Yes34c58.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes51c58.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes52c58.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbff…06d2backed Yes34c57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.389932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No57c56.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1819353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No58c55.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2212057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5d0…7770backed Yes51c54.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No79c53.84$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.431,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b19…462bbacked Yes47c53.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c2…4261backed Yes30c52.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.781723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc90…f8edbacked No50c51.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.91955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c50.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.011,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.572125.5%184 W · 537 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes35c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781f…0884backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc4…314cbacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…ce76backed Yes58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa79e…4436backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7584…17bbbacked No49c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No65c49.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes61c49.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No63c48.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7735058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes37c48.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.832433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes40c47.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No59c47.53$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5697570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c47.11$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.494,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f8…fcf6backed No42c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2611363.7%72 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa70d…63bebacked No60c45.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.148940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2b…a481backed Yes42c45.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.093348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.