TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$141,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4143…7104backed Yes0c21,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked Yes0c14,004$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked No42c8,768$3,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,064.7648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3dc…903fbacked Yes1c3,050$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No12c2,103$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.2227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes24c1,923$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.8542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes19c1,569$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.5710843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes26c1,315$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.524231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes13c999.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes18c758.13$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.6328718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x440c…8dccbacked No73c723.23$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.729635.4%34 W · 62 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No57c636.99$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7712762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes17c622.32$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.211,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed Yes22c564.56$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2211146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No69c561.25$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.331,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes51c548.76$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.2212941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c538.61$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes17c519.34$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6162…857bbacked Yes79c508.1$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No65c505.08$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3731262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes20c468.8$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.11,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes29c467.18$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.533,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c464.32$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5d1…523bbacked Yes72c460.61$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked No80c458.19$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9227648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes62c456.05$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.9554154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes18c442.46$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes21c440.34$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2287…139ebacked No70c399.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1203250%16 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No48c387.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.751,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No78c375.19$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.041,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c372.75$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes42c350.78$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No77c339.23$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.622,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No48c330.88$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c325.03$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes34c321.88$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6129732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed Yes76c309.76$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.695164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes33c302.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4392…68c3backed Yes79c290.53$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick76cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes23c284.61$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81b2…cf28backed No80c283.75$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.751361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes28c277.32$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8225742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes21c275.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7112228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No75c269.27$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes26c268.27$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3772222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes75c267.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes40c253.02$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes26c249.26$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.1765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes31c235.6$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.641,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c215.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.15,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes34c205.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No67c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9728839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4057044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c195.64$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.852,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe188…197bbacked Yes32c182.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.48536.5%31 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes36c182.48$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes59c173.59$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4961929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes23c171.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes18c168.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.143333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes20c167.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.881,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c167.04$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.694,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec53…e515backed Yes12c165.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No57c157.43$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.392,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No74c153.66$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6519059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes37c149.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9614022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes18c147.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.181,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No76c145.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c145.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.027,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes54c141.79$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.081,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No41c140.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9261752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes25c136.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes25c132.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3341046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes76c128.2$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9819060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c127.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.012,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes25c120.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes61c118.03$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.621236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes46c117.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.834533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e2…a783backed Yes33c115.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.395042%21 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No54c114.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No79c111.84$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4963143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No46c111.71$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.923,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes23c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.61838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa691…41f7backed No73c109.98$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.982138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No50c108.24$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.841,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85e…79febacked Yes35c107.54$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.673253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f46…06f0backed No74c106.28$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.394030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes29c105.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.681216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes49c103.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed Yes28c102$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.246241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes29c101.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3053437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f57…f387backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa517…86c8backed Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.325940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcde1…76d5backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.