Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb19f625c35c1d570c3e9356ac0770fe3de8ff843cef735038a9cd088ff6639f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 0c | 21,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…017ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,004$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 42c | 8,768$3,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,064.76 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…903fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,050$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 12c | 2,103$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.22 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 24c | 1,923$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.85 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 19c | 1,569$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.57 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…8e61backed Yes | 26c | 1,315$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.52 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 13c | 999.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 18c | 758.13$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked No | 73c | 723.23$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 57c | 636.99$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.77 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 17c | 622.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 22c | 564.56$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 69c | 561.25$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 51c | 548.76$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.22 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 538.61$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 17c | 519.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.41 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…857bbacked Yes | 79c | 508.1$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 65c | 505.08$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 468.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 29c | 467.18$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 464.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…523bbacked Yes | 72c | 460.61$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 80c | 458.19$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 62c | 456.05$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.95 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 18c | 442.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 21c | 440.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked No | 70c | 399.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 48c | 387.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 375.19$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 372.75$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 42c | 350.78$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.35 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 339.23$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 330.88$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 325.03$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 321.88$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 76c | 309.76$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.69 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 33c | 302.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 79c | 290.53$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 23c | 284.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed No | 80c | 283.75$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 28c | 277.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 21c | 275.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 269.27$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 268.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 75c | 267.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 40c | 253.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 249.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.17 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 31c | 235.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.64 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 215.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 34c | 205.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.97 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 195.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 32c | 182.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 36c | 182.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 59c | 173.59$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 23c | 171.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 18c | 168.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 20c | 167.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 167.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec53…e515backed Yes | 12c | 165.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 157.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 153.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 37c | 149.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 147.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 145.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 145.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 54c | 141.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 41c | 140.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 25c | 136.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 25c | 132.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 76c | 128.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 127.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 25c | 120.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 61c | 118.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2269…3622backed Yes | 46c | 117.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 33c | 115.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 114.16$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 79c | 111.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 111.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked Yes | 23c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa691…41f7backed No | 73c | 109.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 50c | 108.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 35c | 107.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 74c | 106.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 29c | 105.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 49c | 103.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 28c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 29c | 101.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f57…f387backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa517…86c8backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…76d5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or higher on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.