TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,621 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cbd…9c14backed Yes1c5,335$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb7…2838backed Yes9c1,647$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.732913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes4c1,452$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes1c1,373$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5452533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes9c1,193$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0849038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes3c719.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked No75c638.48$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2710843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes23c563.72$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c548.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.972,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a5…f896backed Yes22c429.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes3c408.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1218038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No77c375.19$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.751,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c38…83d0backed Yes20c350.65$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705024%12 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c344.23$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.692,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d9…47b3backed Yes27c334.07$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes9c309.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0261929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7517138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed Yes12c300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c287.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.041,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2269…3622backed Yes17c286.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.884533.3%15 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes28c266.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes7c265.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes23c243.53$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c214.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.977,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes20c213.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.734738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes22c202.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.221,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes11c200.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.332132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x778a…d4c4backed Yes14c200.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.78520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No75c180.44$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.322,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes7c174.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes30c172$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.241,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes30c166.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e1c…2dc8backed No76c164.04$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes14c157.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.288531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No72c153.98$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.225158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes19c151.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.581,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes22c138.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0210163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No80c136.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.354,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes22c135.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1786226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes22c122.33$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.265648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes13c120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes23c118.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7314134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes18c117.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1816030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes26c113$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.923,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes20c110.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes12c108.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.271,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes10c105.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1127421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9bc…a328backed Yes28c105.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…b11bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.954228.6%12 W · 30 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a1…4b1dbacked No73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.21353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No76c99.84$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9539966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4940…1d09backed Yes27c93.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3dc…903fbacked Yes17c90$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes19c88.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6747432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No75c85.32$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No69c84.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes17c80.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0463538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes18c78.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8921930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44ea…6b1abacked Yes25c76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes26c73.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.883333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0fd…d903backed Yes16c73.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes18c72.36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.319632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dd…976abacked Yes28c71.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa691…41f7backed Yes28c70.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc616…3571backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed No73c68.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.973063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes28c65.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.895635.7%20 W · 36 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf74…b087backed Yes25c60.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed Yes18c58.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes24c57.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1159125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes19c57.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9523022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc716…bbe3backed No79c57.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes24c56.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.783,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2142…e744backed Yes33c56.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1516320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No73c54.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.872,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f46…06f0backed No74c51.93$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.674030%12 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x539e…8d25backed Yes28c50.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbab9…e027backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes26c49.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5837835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes24c46.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x232a…4895backed No69c42.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.979053.3%48 W · 42 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-24.3%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No79c37.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8228456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No77c36.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.472222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8455…501fbacked No76c27.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.674360.5%26 W · 17 L-6.1wins-0.14per pick75cpaid-19.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x072f…86b1backed No71c20.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1211151.4%57 W · 54 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No79c15.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3481848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c15.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f90…b54abacked No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.58459.5%50 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.