TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbab9…e027

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
139
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Weather, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.4
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+675.2%+$174.2
France to win the second half?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.43
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.98
Spread: England (-1.5)backed Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.2
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.45
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.97
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.7
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.96
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.77
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$8.41
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+48.3%+$7.25
Switzerland vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$6.28
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)backed Croatia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+48.7%+$7.3
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.35
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$17.37
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.46
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT4658.7%27 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Cricket — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australiabacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.1
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lankabacked Sri Lanka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$28
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs Indiabacked India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$54.9
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins the toss?backed Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+100%+$10.5
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.1
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essexbacked Hampshire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$19
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titansbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.49
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$17.14
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kingsbacked Punjab Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$103.73
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$17.62
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants - Who wins the toss?backed Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+31%+$34.12
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.45
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titansbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$20.8
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Mumbai Indians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$33.33
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$37.8
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Who wins the toss?backed Royal Challengers Bangalore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$10.57
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.6
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Royal Challengers Bangalore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$32.99
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Delhi Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.3
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitalsbacked Delhi Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$61.09
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.25
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+266.7%+$145.46
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+128.3%+$50.7
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+131.7%+$24.48
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$37
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.3
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+135.2%+$74.72
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.05
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$18.52
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+101.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.6
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$570.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+110.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+110.1%+$52.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$26.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.