Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46b94f31d1047a6a9f992c2eaf7ba9f6047c6815c253410214fcd9959e884999
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 0c | 5,130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 80c | 1,244$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.89 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 1c | 1,185$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 2c | 1,117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 21c | 1,073$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.74 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,014$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 935.06$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 15c | 839.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 3c | 759.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 70c | 642.54$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.08 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 520.31$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 499.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 32c | 466.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed Yes | 22c | 458.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 451.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 446.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 13c | 399.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 32c | 388.94$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 27c | 382.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 20c | 379.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 11c | 347.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 80c | 340.61$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 24c | 335.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes | 6c | 321.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 19c | 318.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 23c | 316.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 13c | 308.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 21c | 299.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 14c | 295$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…9d77backed No | 71c | 285.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 18c | 281.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 16c | 280$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 29c | 269.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 269.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 262$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 17c | 239.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 17c | 238.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 25c | 236.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 232.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 18c | 221.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…e31bbacked Yes | 16c | 217.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 19c | 204.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 21c | 198.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 11c | 197.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 23c | 188.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 19c | 182.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 16c | 177.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 173.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 23c | 171.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 18c | 167.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 28c | 166.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 155.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 17c | 152.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…a24abacked Yes | 16c | 146.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 16c | 141.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 20c | 135.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 128.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 128.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed Yes | 17c | 117.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 113.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 112.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 14c | 108.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 17c | 101.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 101$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…54acbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 20c | 98.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 15c | 95.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 93.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 17c | 89.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes | 12c | 83.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 23c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…36f6backed Yes | 33c | 78.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 19c | 68.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 23c | 66.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 30c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…e590backed Yes | 18c | 65.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 65.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 75c | 59.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 56.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 56.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 25c | 52.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…d85ebacked No | 70c | 51.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…e027backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe152…7aa1backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 23c | 48.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Yes | 36c | 47.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.