TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,226

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes9c3,015$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3434624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes12c2,092$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4657614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No76c1,141$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c1,047$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.55,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes15c969.23$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.462,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes42c881.18$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.5265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes18c818.62$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.915248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes25c732.49$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.611,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes30c707.32$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes19c700$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes15c648.16$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.791,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No57c460.12$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.398,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes13c450$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.921,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No79c411.18$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.121,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c396.98$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.942,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c333.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes23c324.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes18c319.67$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1659121.5%127 W · 464 L-30.1wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes20c312.82$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5725839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes13c305.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.123941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c279$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.424,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes12c274$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.089425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes9c273.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes29c260.57$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7911438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes36c254.65$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.526053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No61c253.32$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No75c248.26$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No74c244.7$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4689661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes14c225.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7434533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes29c224.26$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.829732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c6…58f9backed Yes7c217.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4911019.1%21 W · 89 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes7c215$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.491,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes18c205$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.230813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes35c201.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6829520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No73c201$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes17c199.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.285944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed Yes15c195.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes10c193.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes23c192.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2312941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72b4…b978backed Yes16c188.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.73023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c183.65$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.215,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes21c170.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes18c169.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c167$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes11c162.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c154.01$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes13c151.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…e69bbacked Yes28c141.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c131.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.315,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c131$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes16c126.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c125.5$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8542976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes22c124.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.759634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c122$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes29c121.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.186226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes26c120.79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.841,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes13c119.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1216530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c66…f4d3backed Yes9c118$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6224770%173 W · 74 L+1.0wins0.00per pick70cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8798…45efbacked Yes34c115.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407736.4%28 W · 49 L-0.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes28c112.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes23c108$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8427421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes20c106.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No66c105.66$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes40c105$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No72c102.89$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2735058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes11c101$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7511935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x901f…64f0backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2413133.6%44 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes39c99.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes25c99.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes29c96.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes35c96.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.211926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b9…3d3bbacked Yes21c93.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes38c91.43$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3811835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8943…81eebacked Yes19c91.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes17c90.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No65c90.58$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.74065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes13c90$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.122945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No57c89.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.571,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fc2…0018backed Yes46c86.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No60c83.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.054139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c79.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes28c79.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.319728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c76.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes26c74.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0818814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No79c73.15$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5426067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb58…478abacked Yes33c69.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.15429.6%16 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+0.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes18c67.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4918038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes34c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.162,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No74c59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4235854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7f6…0bfbbacked Yes33c58.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c57.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.339,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No78c56.96$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6462770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes46c56.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0356131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.