Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc571f73e2935ae4f6468c7b86989dce5114c7da821b597651278d81814961040
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 16,739$9,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,588.72 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 60c | 15,423$9,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,242.36 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 31c | 8,818$2,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,107.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…6a73backed No | 34c | 6,450$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,584$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +233%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 68c | 1,417$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.05 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 45c | 1,154$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.66 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 68c | 1,033$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 974.95$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.97 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…ed7cbacked No | 70c | 946.6$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…64cebacked Yes | 27c | 800$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 28c | 777.9$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.92 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 68c | 758.18$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.28 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…924abacked No | 29c | 753.7$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 753.21$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.93 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 62c | 644.37$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 6c | 639.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…086cbacked No | 63c | 630.02$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 30c | 613.18$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.18 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 38c | 577.71$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.98 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 22c | 574.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.33 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 23c | 569$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.87 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 550$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 69c | 500$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…8cf5backed No | 59c | 449.94$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…d823backed No | 68c | 431.82$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 63c | 415.51$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked No | 29c | 388$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 380.78$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.74 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 31c | 380$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.7 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 50c | 351$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.24 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…6898backed No | 69c | 350$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 59c | 337.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 5c | 304$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 64c | 300$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 67c | 299.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 295.19$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.33 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 48c | 264.96$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 33c | 260.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes | 30c | 254.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee8…801bbacked No | 57c | 233.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 77c | 232.89$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 107 | 67.3%72 W · 35 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 62c | 230.6$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 75c | 228$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…afd2backed No | 28c | 226.73$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 15c | 211.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed No | 8c | 203.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b5…e85ebacked No | 69c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.69 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba3…a665backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed No | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…ea11backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 74c | 190.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 51c | 190$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 31c | 172$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 169.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.05 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 28c | 162$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 22c | 160$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed Yes | 67c | 158.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…466abacked Yes | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 152.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…4421backed Yes | 47c | 150.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…0fd3backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…d564backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…72debacked No | 78c | 148.97$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 37c | 145.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 62c | 145$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 142.37$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.74 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 22c | 137.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked No | 70c | 134$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 55c | 132.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked No | 31c | 124.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 32c | 121.21$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…9e60backed Yes | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 116.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…6528backed No | 58c | 116.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 36c | 115$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 39c | 110.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…89d5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…ed1cbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…3e9dbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0b…0f27backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f32…1293backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0a…0db2backed Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6960…b9d4backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.