Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23003281a6d2ddbc4d1c28f3fe6aec701f3e0d1328de7cc323b839be489632f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 53c | 20,862$11,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,151.18 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked No | 47c | 6,500$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,445 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked No | 37c | 5,328$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,361.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed No | 45c | 3,010$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 76c | 2,994$2,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.1 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed No | 46c | 1,600$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 32c | 1,289$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.39 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 47c | 1,197$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 70c | 1,168$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.8 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…36abbacked Yes | 63c | 1,100$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 51c | 870.42$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.85 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 20c | 701.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.96 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…ec23backed Yes | 61c | 605$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 22c | 601.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.71 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 53c | 586.94$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 69c | 551.52$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 49c | 535.39$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.93 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 56c | 504.6$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.79 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed No | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked No | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…426dbacked No | 48c | 489.4$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…1e41backed No | 47c | 487.04$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 29c | 467$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yes | 52c | 437.28$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.58 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 59c | 416$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.82 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 47c | 400$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed No | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 366.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 12c | 300.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1896…0f63backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 63c | 300$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…4244backed No | 46c | 285$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed No | 49c | 280.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e3…5906backed Yes | 53c | 280$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…30b1backed No | 47c | 278.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb055…20f7backed No | 47c | 258.73$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 12c | 227$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 45c | 215.68$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.94 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…524abacked Yes | 14c | 210.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8345…5928backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5002…ea11backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…4524backed No | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 55c | 175.91$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…3e90backed Yes | 52c | 173.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aef…3962backed Yes | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 62c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…2a51backed No | 16c | 150$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…7ddcbacked No | 73c | 131.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 125$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 48c | 124.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 112.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 9c | 112.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +154.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 111.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 47c | 105.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3a…3047backed Yes | 42c | 101.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…c129backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…b776backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…6783backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1a8ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…c6b1backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 34c | 99.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 80c | 95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed No | 63c | 81.19$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 14c | 79.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked No | 34c | 74.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 64.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed Yes | 71c | 62.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 66c | 61.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee8…801bbacked No | 63c | 60.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…8c26backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 45c | 57.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…1475backed Yes | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…0486backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5c…db6dbacked Yes | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…b6b2backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dce…cfacbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…fb11backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acc…dacfbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3858…a870backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…691dbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…b4d5backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…fc98backed Yes | 69c | 48.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 32c | 43.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.