Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c7a1e2412ee74e984505b8e21379cfa112b9eec0a9108d0cf1f1a4c4ed4a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,006$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 19c | 954.4$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.94 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 17c | 630$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 79c | 620.7$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.32 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 27c | 299.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 12c | 297$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 79c | 220$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Yes | 15c | 187.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 157.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 25c | 128.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 15c | 110.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb85…665ebacked Yes | 18c | 89.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef8e…7465backed Yes | 29c | 73.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…2cc6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…9b29backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696c…6de6backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.