Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ef43c4a2239e78b9893852cdcb9e18a4f9c966d026da72b3ccfa1f6647b235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6e0…b541backed Yes | 3c | 36,469$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 79c | 26,886$21,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,646.37 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,436$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,506$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 78c | 2,889$2,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.55 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,563$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a82…07aabacked No | 79c | 1,278$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 1,111$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.22 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 18c | 918.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 11c | 775.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 66c | 616.74$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.66 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 19c | 539.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…f8a5backed No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 7c | 339.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 13c | 218.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 9c | 179.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.21 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 24c | 169.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 79c | 164.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 14c | 159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 157.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 9c | 124$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…f7d2backed Yes | 16c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 100.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 97.47$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes | 23c | 86.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 16c | 78.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…3d12backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 73.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 72.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked No | 79c | 69.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…d4dcbacked Yes | 30c | 65.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 27c | 63.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 57.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 51.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…c6bbbacked Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…e41dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…4359backed No | 58c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.