Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd20e6e6a67bf20edd1b9d2aaf990e5532afe977c32db1b500b2b183506d210db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked Yes | 39c | 13,773$5,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,338.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,290$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.88 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c32…d685backed No | 56c | 10,058$5,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,434.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 46c | 2,654$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.27 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 42c | 1,570$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.45 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,230$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes | 54c | 995.16$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.56 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…0ac7backed Yes | 61c | 781.99$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 11c | 618.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 58c | 512.05$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.38 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 338.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 39c | 325.55$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.03 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…3868backed No | 61c | 322$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Yes | 58c | 310.54$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 54c | 300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…df53backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Yes | 63c | 265$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.66 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 261.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 49c | 254.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.01 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 43c | 245.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 53c | 241.2$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.77 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…659fbacked Yes | 59c | 240.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 69c | 217$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…f5d1backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…eaa7backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…77c1backed Yes | 74c | 200$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b8…6528backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…e02cbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 69c | 199.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 13c | 198$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 59c | 197.18$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed72…6758backed Yes | 59c | 181.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…26e7backed Yes | 60c | 180.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 168.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…863ebacked Yes | 61c | 167.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…bbbfbacked No | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 17c | 149.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +233%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed No | 57c | 145.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…58e9backed No | 57c | 139.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 19c | 137.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed No | 69c | 135.75$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 23c | 131$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…d8fbbacked No | 44c | 115.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…6783backed No | 67c | 109.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 10c | 108.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…1e3bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b69…42cfbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 57c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…e41dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 15c | 96.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 16c | 85.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…a2c9backed Yes | 58c | 83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 24c | 80.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x313f…e8a5backed No | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed No | 43c | 76.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb656…42e6backed Yes | 53c | 75.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 75.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…40acbacked No | 40c | 66.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68de…39c7backed Yes | 37c | 56.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa476…ae80backed No | 41c | 55.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 76c | 54.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 42c | 54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f7…7dfabacked Yes | 57c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 48c | 51.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…0fd3backed No | 46c | 50.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3a9bbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…2cc6backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…57dbbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…47e8backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…1cecbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…8c09backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…dacbbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeeff…f0f7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…e6f5backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…9b29backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…8f14backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…0e8cbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…7789backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…8e5fbacked No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.