Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1096447b0e7fc0bb71f2797be2c20d481d3b51d4c80552f969e66805eea9fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 77c | 1,373$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.47 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 78c | 658.4$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.13 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 639.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 15c | 552.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9976…8b3dbacked Yes | 14c | 490.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 287.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 80c | 252.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 239.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 228.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 70c | 228.57$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 13c | 186$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 14c | 111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…2ad1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…eccdbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb9…badebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed No | 72c | 44.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +106%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?Yes won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in May?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.