TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a0e…691d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5)backed Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$835Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$869.55
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 153.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.2
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats: O/U 160.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$510
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 154.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs: O/U 169.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.24
Penn Quakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini: O/U 151.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.06
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+100%+$76.47
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 159.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.86
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores: O/U 149.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked UMBC Retrievers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,022
All 11 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Cricket — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+105.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+68.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 7 or after?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$95.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.