AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcca580046966603042bf8495f9d8c59c2e6c42156144e252f935567b3e53d03c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 66c | 2,514$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.28 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 9c | 1,672$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.56 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 18c | 686.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 4c | 624.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 9c | 517$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 165 | 19.4%32 W · 133 L | -21.3wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 18c | 444.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 349.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 18c | 299.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 17c | 295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked No | 18c | 289.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 16c | 275.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc35c…cfb7backed Yes | 80c | 271$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 10c | 269.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed No | 20c | 247.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 74c | 232.83$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 67c | 185$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 10c | 177.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…1990backed No | 15c | 177.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked No | 16c | 139.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 17c | 120.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…7c8fbacked Yes | 78c | 119$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…66abbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…88edbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c11…5958backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…691dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…011cbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed No | 17c | 98.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 11c | 95.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 16c | 95.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 16c | 95.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 90.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 17c | 73.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…6e2ebacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…35f7backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…37abbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 28c | 36.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 52c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…e297backed Yes | 78c | 28.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 72c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 47c | 24.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 45c | 24.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…6a9ebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked Yes | 74c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 78c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.